Arya Gadage

Pre Doctoral Research Fellow

Program for Economic Research, Columbia University

CV

Hello :) I currently work as a Pre Doctoral Research Fellow in the Program for Economic Research (PER) at Columbia University.

My current work is in applied microeconomics and econometrics under the guidance of Dr. Michael Carlos Best and Dr. Haoge Chang.

I hold a BS in Mathematics and a BA in German from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

My research interests include optimization, public economics, finance, and decision theory.

Research

Work I've contributed to through academic endeavors, from term papers and honors projects to research assistantships and personal explorations.

Predoc Contributions

Papers I've contributed to as a predoctoral research fellow.

Attacking Networks of Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence from Paraguay
M. Best, F. Grosset, G. Pierri, P. Toulis.
Alternative Formulations for the Projection Problem in Discrete-Choice Random Utility Models
H. Chang, K. Saito, M. Zhu.
Randomization-Based Confidence Intervals for the Local Average Treatment Effect
H. Chang, P. M. Aronow, P. Lopatto.
Randomization Inference for the Always-Reporter Average Treatment Effect
H. Chang, Z. Yu.

Working Papers

Do Diplomas Deliver? Bureaucrat Education and Public Service Outcomes
A. Gadage.

Abstract

Estimate the effect of bureaucrat education on development outcomes across Indian districts to test the role of human capital in public good provision. Develop an optimal assignment framework using estimated skill–outcome complementarities to characterize welfare loss from posting rules; derive a priority mechanism that improves match efficiency.

Generative Equity Returns
With C. Harvey, M. Peckham.
Faculty mentor: M. Katsoulakis (UMass Amherst). 2024.

In progress.

Abstract

Develops generative models for simulating equity return distributions, leveraging score-based diffusion methods to capture non-Gaussian dynamics and tail behavior.
Case Study: AI Ethics in Healthcare Insurance
With G. Pagnini, R. Shah.
Faculty mentors: S. Auerbach, M. Sherman, J. Merton (UMass Amherst). 2024.

In progress — written as course material for iCons 189H, Fall 2025.

Abstract

A case study exploring the ethical dimensions of AI deployment in healthcare insurance, examining algorithmic bias, fairness criteria, and regulatory implications.

Teaching

Supplemental Instructor
Learning Resource Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Calculus I (Math 131)
Calculus II (Math 132)
Multivariate Calculus (Math 233)

Notes

A personal library of papers, lectures, and books I've worked through, with notes and summaries.

Lecture Notes

IEOR E4407 — Game Theoretic Models of Operation
Auditing at Columbia University, taught by Dr. Jay Sethuraman. [notes]
A Quant's Perspective on the 2008 Financial Crisis
The mathematical anatomy of the crisis — Gaussian Copula, correlation smile, and related topics. [notes]

Books

Revealed Preference Theory — Chp. 3 (Rational Demand) & Chp. 7 (Stochastic Choices)
Mathematical models capturing consumer preferences revealed through behavior. [notes]

Books

I enjoy reading short stories, speculative, and dystopian fiction.
Currently reading Private Citizens by Tony Tulathimutte.

Hobbies

Scuba Diving

NAUI Advanced Open Water Diver (2023)
Certified through Day Degenza (Member #25949). Competent at breathing underwater with equipment.

Scuba diving

Scuba diving

Other Things

Reading, painting, and 2048.

Contact